DAY 1 OF THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION MAP UPDATE-GEORGIA GOES TOSSUP

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Georgia goes tossup!  According to a Georgia poll, Georgia falls within the (4% margin of error).with Trump at 46 to Clinton 44 with Johnson 5.5 and Stein at 2.5.  Even the RCP average puts them at 45-41.  This puts the totals at 154-103 with a whopping 281 EV's undecided.   Although some national polls have come out favoring Trump, so far there haven't been any polls confirming this on the State to State level..

Week 1: Dem Convention Eve

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KITTRODAMUS UPDATE:  7/24 2016:  THE EVE OF THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION
SUNDAY ROUNDUP: All is not well in the house of Denmark.   Wikileaks revealed that the DNC indeed tipped the scales, under chairman Wasserman-Schultz, on behalf of HRC.  Schultz resigned and within hours had joined HRC's staff.  The day before, just after the end of the tumultuous GOP convention where the press was still talking about Cruz firery non-endorsement of trump, HRC announced Senator Tim Kaine (VA) would be her running mate.   Progressives fumed at the obvious lack of an olive branch (she might have picked someone actually considered Progressive).  The campaign and it's apologists (i.e. Al Franken) went out of their way to clamor about how Progressive Kaine was because he began as a lawyer for the poor.  Bernie came on the Sunday talk shows , and continued to make it clear that the priority was defeating a dangerous Trump, in spite of the fact that when asked about Kaine's Progressive credentials, Sanders merely said they didn't share the same politics, a fairly politic answer considering the circumstances, which the pundits tried to make too much of.

POLLING AND THE ELECTORAL MAP:  LOTS OF TOSSUPS!  As the map indicates, the real horse race begins now, and it is way too unclear to make sense of where this might go.

Here is the spreadsheet for this week:

	BEGINNING OF 7/24/16				2008			2008
	STATE	EVS	CLINTON		OBAMA	STEIN	TRUMP	MCCAIN	JOHNSON	UNDEC	2012	PREV(7/17)	DEC	REASON
				TOSS UP STATES
1	NH	4	39		47	5	39	44	10	9.5	BBLUE	TO	TO	UD
2	OH	18	40.4		40	2.8	38.04	46	7.8	11.2	B BLUE	TO	TO	UD
3	PA	20	40.7		46	2.5	37	42	10	10.7	WBLUE	TO	TO	UD
4	IOWA	6	40.8		51	2.2	38.4	41	6	12.6	WBLUE	TO	TO	UD
5	FLA	29	40.6		46	3.6	34.6	46	8.8	12.4	BBLUE	TO	TO	UD
6	COLO	9	40.6		49	3.6	34.6	42	8.8	12.4	WBLUE	B BLUE	TO	UD
7	MICH	16	40.3		47	1.7	33.8	42	5.5	19.3	WBLUE	B BLUE	TO	UD
8	NV	6	44.5		42	0	42.5	40	7	6	WBLUE	BBLUE	TO	MOE
9	VA	13	40		44	3	34	44	10	13	BBLUE	BBLUE	TO	UD
10	WIS	10	42.7		50	2	35	39	9	12	WBLUE	BBLUE	TO	UD
11	NC	15	44.3		44	1.5	39.5	48	5.8	9.8	BRED	BRED	TO	UD
12	UT	6	29.3		31	0.67	33.3	55	13	23.7	RED	BRED	TO	UD
13	TX	38	31		38	0	38	48	5	26.5	RED	RED	TO	UD
14	MNE2	1			46			36					TO
15	MNE  1	3	42				35			23	BLUE	BLUE	TO	UD
16	TN	11	35		36	0	44	51	0	21	RED	RED	TO	UD
17	KY	8	45		35	0	42	51	0	13	RED	RED	TO	MOE
18	MISS	6	43		44	0	46	50	0	11	WRED	RED	TO	MOE
19	SC	9	42		39	0	47	48	0	11	WRED	RED	TO	MOE
20	CONN	7	41		55	3	36	35	3	14	BLUE	BLUE	TO	UD
21	OR	7	43.6		46		36	37		20.3	WBLUE	WBLUE	TO	UD
22	MINN	10	43		49		38	37		19	WBLUE	WBLUE	TO	UD
23	NJ	14	40.5		50	2	31.5	36	7	19	BLUE	BLUE	BBLUE	UD
24	NM	5	41		48		33	43	14	12	WBLUE	WBLUE	BBLUE	UD
24	TOT 24	271	40.115789		44.4782609	1.75388889	38.3021053	43.5217391	6.094444	14.3210526
	TRUMP
1	AZ	11	39		34	0	45	44	10	6	WRED	BRED	BRED	MOE
2	GA	16	38		39	2	45	48	6	9	WRED	WRED	BRED	MOE
3	MISOU	10	36		45	1	46	45	7	10	WRED	WRED	BRED	MOE
4	ID	4	23		39	3	44	52	5	25	RED	WRED	BRED	MOE
5	IND	11	41		48	0	48	47	0	11	WRED	WRED	BRED	MOE
6	KS	6	36		32	0	47	52	8	9	RED	WRED	WRED	MOE
7	NEB	5			36			52			RED	WRED	WRED	MOE
8	ARK	6	36		37	0	47	47	0	9	RED	WRED	WRED	MOE
9	ALSK	3	44		41	0	49	48	0	7	WRED	RED	WRED	MOE
10	LA	8	37.5		37	0	49.5	56	0	13	RED	RED	WRED	MOE
11	ALB	9			36			50			RED	RED	SOLID	MOE
12	MONT	3			48			43			WRED	RED	SOLID	MOE
13	ND	3			43			43			RED	RED	SOLID	MOE
14	OK	7			38			52			RED	RED	SOLID	MOE
15	SD	3			43			47			RED	RED	SOLID	MOE
16	WV	5	30		37	0	57	46	0	13	RED	RED	SOLID	MOE
17	WY	3			40			53			RED	RED	SOLID	MOE
17	17	113	36.05		39.58823529	0.6	47.75	48.52941176	3.6	11.2
	CLINTON
1	NY	29	45		50	4	33	37	6	12	BLUE	BLUE	BBLUE	UD
2	WASH	12	49		53	0	37	41	0	14	WBLUE	WBLUE	BBLUE	UD
3	CA	55	47.5		54	0	29.5	30	7	16	BLUE	BLUE	SOLID	MOE
4	HAW	4			61			31			BLUE	BLUE	SOLID	MOE
5	ILL	20	51		50	4	34	37	4	4	BLUE	BLUE	SOLID	MOE
6	VT	3			63			29			BLUE	BLUE	SOLID	MOE
7	DE	3			50			41			BLUE	BLUE	SOLID	MOE
8	MD	10	62		52	0	27.5	39	0	10	BLUE	BLUE	SOLID	MOE
9	MASS	11	58.5		53	0	33.5	37	0	8	BLUE	BLUE	SOLID	MOE
10	RI	4			55			31			BLUE	BLUE	SOLID	MOE
11	DC	3			90			9			BLUE	BLUE	SOLID	MOE
12	13	154	52.1666667		57.36363636	1.333333333	32.41666667	32.90909091	2.8333333	10.66666667
13

KITTRODAMUS ANALYSIS: SUPER TUESDAY: BERNIE OUTPERFORMS EXPECTATIONS, CANDIDATE HILLARY VS. KING TRUMP

KITTRODAMUS ANALYSIS: SUPER TUESDAY: 1. King Trump-For better or worse, Trump emerges as the likely candidate for the GOP, unless they rally around Cruz, which is unlikely. His only problem? He still doesn't have a majority of the votes. The rules of the GOP convention may come into play here, but there will be people in the streets if he wins anywhere close to the majority of votes and isn't allowed the nomination.

2. Bernie fights on/Candidate Hillary vs. Trumpolini Bernie did much better than I predicted, winning 4 states (OK, VT, Minn, Colo) and more or less tying in Massachussets. He was blown out in the other 6 states, and Hillary picked up a lot of delegates, putting her total at 543/1000 (wo/w superdelegagtes) to 349/371. The race is still winnable by the Bern, but it is a tough race. Meanwhile, Hillary tries on her candidate voice. '

the power of anti-Trump base voting in the General Election
A lot of liberal pundits believe Trump will have such high negatives it will drive both moderate GOP voters into vote for her and really energize the base guaranteeing her a win vs. Trump. I'd say if the primaries are any indication, this is yet another overblown supposition which underestimates the energizing demogoguery of Trump and overestimates the vague platitudes of HRC. But there's no use predicting anything until we see how Trump plays out on the electoral map.

Trumpolini: the Rich Progressive Racist? Talking out of both sides of the mouth: Its not just for Clintons anymore
Trump has an odd crossover appeal-Republicans may stay out or vote for Hillary and some Democrats may vote for him. He's racist, but also has made noises implying he will raise taxes on the rich, support social security, and possibly even support a government improvement of health care? Like a Mussolini type Fascist, his positions are all over the place, including some positions that are progressive and may have some crossover appeal. He seems especially to be aiming at African Americans. His protectionist stance on China, the TPP and NAFTA, combined with his anti illegal immigration , may tap into some democratic votes as working class voters on the left see that Trump may butter their bread better than HRC. Of course, Trump is a Sphinx. How can anyone believe anything that comes out of his mouth, who totally changes his ptich to fix the audience. Problem is, that's kind of a page out of the Clinton playbook.